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Articles/Opening Guides/Move Trends by Rating

Move Trends by Rating

How move preferences shift across rating brackets on Lichess (blitz & rapid). See which openings gain and lose popularity as players get stronger.

Why does this matter?

Understanding which moves are popular at different rating levels can guide your study. If you're a 1200-rated player, knowing that stronger players overwhelmingly prefer certain moves can help you focus on the openings that will serve you well as you improve. These charts show real data from millions of Lichess games.

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Click any move board to show/hide its line on the chart.

Position: First Move (White)
Starting position

First Move (White)

What does White play on move 1?

d4 rises sharply from 20% to 35% as players improve. e4 drops from 66% at beginner level to 45% at 2500.

After e4
After d4
After Nf3
After c4
After e3
After b3

e4 decreases from 65.8% at 400 to 44.6% at 2500
d4 increases from 20.2% at 400 to 34.5% at 2500
Nf3 increases from 2.7% at 400 to 10.4% at 2500
Position: Response to 1.e4
1.e4

Response to 1.e4 King's Pawn Game

How does Black respond to 1.e4?

c5 overtakes e5 around 2000 rating. e5 drops from 63% at beginner level to 19% at 2500.

After e5
After c5
After e6
After c6
After d5
After d6

e5 decreases from 62.5% at 400 to 19.4% at 2500
c5 increases from 5.0% at 400 to 38.1% at 2500
e6 increases from 5.7% at 400 to 11.9% at 2500
c5 overtakes e5 at 2000
Position: White vs 1.e4 e5
1.e4 e5

White vs 1.e4 e5 Open Game

White's second move against 1...e5

Nf3 dominates at all levels and becomes even more popular at higher ratings (52% → 83%). Qh5 drops from 10% at beginner level to 0% at 2500.

After Nf3
After Bc4
After f4
After Qh5
After Nc3
After d4

Nf3 increases from 51.7% at 400 to 83.1% at 2500
Bc4 decreases from 11.6% at 400 to 2.8% at 2500
Position: After 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3

After 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 King's Knight Opening

Black's second move in the Open Game

Nc6 dominates at all levels and becomes even more popular at higher ratings (50% → 81%).

After Nc6
After Nf6
After d6
After Bc5
After f6
After Qf6

Nc6 increases from 50.4% at 400 to 81.4% at 2500
Nf6 decreases from 17.2% at 400 to 12.3% at 2500
d6 decreases from 11.6% at 400 to 3.4% at 2500
Position: After 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6

After 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 Open Game: 2...Nc6

White's third move: Italian, Ruy Lopez, or Scotch?

Bb5 rises sharply from 14% to 46% as players improve. Nc3 drops from 24% at beginner level to 11% at 2500.

After Bb5
After Bc4
After Nc3
After d4
After c3
After d3

Bb5 increases from 13.6% at 400 to 46.0% at 2500
Bc4 decreases from 36.3% at 400 to 29.2% at 2500
Nc3 decreases from 24.2% at 400 to 10.7% at 2500
Position: Italian: After 3.Bc4
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4

Italian: After 3.Bc4 Italian Game

Black's reply to the Italian

Bc5 overtakes Nf6 around 1400 rating. h6 is common at beginner level (9%) but nearly vanishes at higher ratings.

After Nf6
After Bc5
After h6
After d6
After Be7
After Nd4

Nf6 increases from 40.1% at 400 to 47.7% at 2500
Bc5 increases from 22.5% at 400 to 46.0% at 2500
h6 decreases from 8.7% at 400 to 0.0% at 2500
Bc5 overtakes Nf6 at 1400
Position: Italian: After 3.Bc4 Bc5
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5

Italian: After 3.Bc4 Bc5 Giuoco Piano

White's fourth move in the Giuoco Piano

c3 rises sharply from 15% to 48% as players improve. Nc3 drops from 14% at beginner level to 2% at 2500. Ng5 is common at beginner level (10%) but nearly vanishes at higher ratings.

After c3
After d3
After O-O
After Nc3
After b4
After Ng5

c3 increases from 14.9% at 400 to 48.3% at 2500
d3 decreases from 25.3% at 400 to 21.3% at 2500
O-O decreases from 22.4% at 400 to 18.6% at 2500
Position: Ruy Lopez: After 3.Bb5
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5

Ruy Lopez: After 3.Bb5 Ruy Lopez

Black's reply to the Ruy Lopez

a6 rises sharply from 26% to 65% as players improve. Nf6 drops from 30% at beginner level to 20% at 2500. d6 is common at beginner level (9%) but nearly vanishes at higher ratings.

After a6
After Nf6
After d6
After Bc5
After f5
After Nd4

a6 increases from 26.3% at 400 to 64.8% at 2500
Nf6 decreases from 30.3% at 400 to 20.2% at 2500
d6 decreases from 9.4% at 400 to 0.7% at 2500
Position: Ruy Lopez: After 3...a6 4.Ba4 Nf6 5.O-O
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 a6 4.Ba4 Nf6 5.O-O

Ruy Lopez: After 3...a6 4.Ba4 Nf6 5.O-O Ruy Lopez: Closed

Black's key decision in the Ruy Lopez mainline

Be7 rises sharply from 5% to 56% as players improve. Nxe4 drops from 27% at beginner level to 9% at 2500. Bc5 drops from 19% at beginner level to 5% at 2500.

After Be7
After b5
After Nxe4
After Bc5
After d6
After d5

Be7 increases from 4.8% at 400 to 55.9% at 2500
b5 decreases from 31.6% at 400 to 27.1% at 2500
Nxe4 decreases from 26.8% at 400 to 9.0% at 2500
Position: Petrov: After 2...Nf6
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6

Petrov: After 2...Nf6 Petrov Defense

White's third move against the Petrov Defense

Nxe5 rises sharply from 29% to 51% as players improve. d4 rises sharply from 6% to 17% as players improve. Bc4 drops from 18% at beginner level to 3% at 2500.

After Nxe5
After Nc3
After Bc4
After d4
After d3
After Bd3

Nxe5 increases from 28.5% at 400 to 51.2% at 2500
Nc3 decreases from 30.9% at 400 to 24.4% at 2500
Bc4 decreases from 18.4% at 400 to 3.0% at 2500

Data from Lichess opening explorer (blitz & rapid games)

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